Come the Revolution! or What goes around comes around
Paris, 1780, A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens
Excerpt from the chapter “ Monseigneur in the city”
Military officers destitute of military knowledge; naval officers with no idea of a ship; civil officers without a notion of affairs; brazen ecclesiastics, of the worst world worldly, with sensual eyes, loose tongues, and looser lives; all totally unfit for their several callings, all lying horribly in pretending to belong to them..foisted on all public employments from which anything was to be got…
Unbelieveing Philosophers who were remodeling the world with words, and making card-towers of Babel to scale the skies with…
The leprosy of unreality disfigured every human creature in attendance upon Monseigneur. In the outermost room were half a dozen exceptional people who had had, for a few years, some vague misgiving in them that things in general were going rather wrong.
…the comfort was, that all the company at the grand hotel of Monseigneur were perfectly dressed. If the Day of Judgment had only been ascertained to be a dress day, everybody there would have been eternally correct. Such frizzling and powdering and sticking up of hair, such delicate complexions artificially preserved and mended, such gallant swords to look at, and such delicate hour to the sense of smell, would surely keep anything going, for ever and ever.
*****
My own conclusions in the days immediately following the Europe-wide elections of 6 June now appear to have been unduly pessimistic.
To be sure, the emergence in the European Parliament of a significantly enlarged nationalistic, pro-sovereignty, so-called Extreme Right contingent of parliamentarians at the expense of the Greens, of the centrist Renew party of Emmanuel Macron and of the Center-Left Socialists and Democrats could be construed as a positive development. Though the various European parties constituting the Extreme Right do not speak with one voice on the question of war and peace, many are opposed to further financial and military support to Ukraine, so that diplomacy might yet be revived to put an end to the very dangerous ongoing East-West confrontation in and over Ukraine if they found a way to put a stick in the gearbox of those running the ship of state.
However, the losses of Center Left were partly offset by the gains of the Center Right – the European People’s Party to which the German Christian Democrats and their standard bearer Ursula von der Leyen belong. A look of smug complacency returned very quickly to the face of Frau von der Leyen, and there was every reason to say, as I did, that the desire for change of European voters would be frustrated now that the same corrupt Comprador politicians who have shaped Europe’s servile performance of Washington’s diktats for the past five years and pursued economic suicide will continue to hold the reins of power. The latest forecasts for the soon to be held vote on a second term for von der Leyen suggest she will prevail. Meanwhile, the vapid, viciously anti-Russian prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas has been confirmed as the EU’s new commissioner for foreign relations and defense, meaning that the powers that be intend to pursue their course on the war, whatever the home public says or does. And at the same time, the outgoing prime minister of The Netherlands, Mark Rutte, has been voted in as the next Secretary General of NATO. To the visceral enmity for Russia of the outgoing Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Rutte adds a good measure of political sophistication and brainpower.
And yet there are now reasons to hold in abeyance our pessimism and wait upon the denouement of processes now underway that can point the course of history in an entirely different direction.
It was unforeseeable in the immediate days following 6 June that events in a couple of countries could put in question the seamless continuation of misrule that I have just outlined. These countries are France and the United States.
The real shock in France that few if any foresaw was the decision by President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap parliamentary election in the apparent hope of undoing the trouncing of his party in the EU Parliament elections of 6 June by Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) party. There were many attempts by political commentators in France and the world at large to understand the logic of this high-stakes political gamble, and we are unlikely to ever know because in his typical arrogant manner Macron kept his cards close to the chest and took counsel with almost no one.
Following the first round of elections in France that just took place, there is every indication that Macron lost his bet. His own party, or ‘movement,’ came in third, after the RN and the united socialist Left parties. ‘Macronism’ is generally acknowledged among the political elites to be dead, and the questions of the day are whether Le Pen can achieve a parliamentary majority in the second round of voting soon to take place, and so take effective control of government, or whether there will be a hung parliament. In either case, Macron will be a much diminished force in French politics and his plans to send French troops to Ukraine, his plans to increase military assistance to Kiev will be overridden and negated. This is a powerful message to other European states where the ruling policy on war and peace is also effectively rejected by a majority of the population. I have in mind particularly Germany, where Chancellor Scholz’s hold on power will be sorely strained in the coming weeks.
Within this same time period, the Biden-Trump debates in the United States have changed the political calculus dramatically against the incumbent. Democrats are aghast at his performance on live television when deprived of his teleprompters and notes. His senility, a closely guarded secret of his entourage that mass media did not explore till now, has become the subject of the day. Those many Democrats who wish to replace him with someone younger and more capable face the dilemma that recent polls indicate Trump would be even more assured of victory when running against any of the Democrats’ alternative candidates than against Biden.
It is too early, of course, to speak of an assured Trump victory. It is still less certain to say how a possible Trump victory will change U.S. policy on the war in Ukraine and on confrontation with Russia to maintain global dominance. We all know only too well that Trump puts no store in policy consistency.
*****
I close this brief survey of the political calculations of informed Western news analysts by pointing out that exactly the same observations and calculations are featured now on Russian state television. This is what I saw on Dmitry Kiselyov’s News of the Week wrap-up Sunday night as regards in particular developments in the U.S. electoral race. The channel’s New York bureau chief Valentin Bogdanov gave viewers an excellent, professional over view.
As regards developments in France and what may come next in the fight between Macron and Le Pen for control of government and foreign policy, yesterday’s edition of The Great Game hosted by Vyacheslav Nikonov also was right on target with objective reporting.
If relations between Russia and the West go further awry, it will not be because the Russians are flying blind. I wish I could say the same for the ruling elites in Washington.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024